US cattle count down to 1950's levels.

[Chasdev]

Heard on the radio machine yesterday that the number of American beef critters is way too low, down to 1950's level.
Missed why though, what's up?
Also heard on the same show that ranchers are selling off their breeder stocks for consumption.
This can't be good.

 

[voyager 663rd]

Canada is in the same boat. Droughts reduce available grazing lands and are forced to buy feed at greatly increased prices (which are also affected by drought).

I remember eye of round was dirt cheap (like $2/lb CDN) pre-covid. A recent "sale" had at it at $10/lb .

But then, climate change isn't real, is it

 

[Chasdev]

Well crap!

 

[Torch&Tone]

When 85% of the market runs through only four mega-corps, what you get is market manipulation. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-wave...-how-it-affects-competition-and-cattle-prices

"There are still no signs of heifer retention or beef cow herd rebuilding. This suggests that overall cattle numbers on Jan. 1 next year will be lower than on Jan. 1 this year, when the total was 87.157 million head. This was the lowest total since 1951. Cattle numbers are unlikely to start increasing for at least another year, which has negative implications for the companies that are currently building new processing plants."

Basically, the Big Four are leveraging their profits on increased processing of pork (+1.2%) and chicken (+1.6%)(tangent: what bird flu?) to make the beef market impossible for any new competition... even though the price spread between cattle and beef - aka their profit margin - only ever increases. Ranchers, already struggling with drought, borrowing rates, and feed, reduce their herd size to cut costs, while consumers are squeezed at the grocery store and restaurant. Recent changes in government policy are likely to only make the situation worse.

 

[uncle eddie]

I am afraid the people on the radio are misleading a bit with select facts...

Cattle production is down less than 1% from the wicked drought of the past 2-3 years. While some cattle producers sold of a good portion of their herd (in wicked drought areas), it was to get the herd size down to levels that the land could support. All in all - cattle production in the USA is more or less steady.

My business partner runs cattle (as do 2 family members) and - last spring - all were actually felling oak trees for the cattle to consume the leaves until they could get the lack-of-hay issue worked out. Rain happened...perked up the fescue...problem resolved itself.

Also - historically:
In the 1970s, there was higher per person beef consumption (92 lbs/year vs. 53 lbs/year today) (from Missouri Cattlemen's Association)
IMHO - The reduction in cattle from the 1950's is also mostly due to less consumption per person - which I think is caused, at least in part, by the high price of beef in the grocery store.

 

[JC in GB]

I am glad that I get the majority of my beef from a local producer. That said, when I do get ready to order, I am put on a waiting list for an animal to be ready for processing and also that the animal has been fully sold to other buyers. Still works out better than buying store beef. I pay a bit more up front but am insulated from later price fluctuations which has served me well. Currently my local butcher is offering Porterhouse steaks for a mere $19.90/lb. Zounds!!

JC

 

[mike243]

More vegans maybe, the different farmers know how to raise prices more than 1 way, biggest 1 is Grass fed lmao, grain feed mine please

 

[jcam222]

I am glad that I get the majority of my beef from a local producer. That said, when I do get ready to order, I am put on a waiting list for an animal to be ready for processing and also that the animal has been fully sold to other buyers. Still works out better than buying store beef. I pay a bit more up front but am insulated from later price fluctuations which has served me well. Currently my local butcher is offering Porterhouse steaks for a mere $19.90/lb. Zounds!!

JC

Right? Thanks goodness for local beef farmers. I'm pumped that my favorite local farm is opening a shop for their meats. I've been buying it via "donations" for awhile now. Great prices and some of the best marbled beef I've ever seen. Here's an Angus Flat Iron from that farm, crazy marbling.

 

[normanaj]

Eventually this thread will go in one direction and it ain't good one,we've seen it enough times here.Mods keep an eye on this one and that's all I'm going to say.

 

[Smoke-Chem BBQ]

Heard on the radio machine yesterday that the number of American beef critters is way too low, down to 1950's level.

It's gotta be our fault. With thousands of avid smokers on this forum, beef production can't possibly keep up.

 

[Brokenhandle]

I miss the days I could eat a 1 1/2 lb steak... oh the good ole days!

Ryan

 

[Fueling Around]

I really doubt beef hoof stock is down to the 1950's level since the US population has more than tripled since that time.

I am afraid the people on the radio are misleading a bit with select facts.
...
Cattle production is down less than 1% from the wicked drought of the past 2-3 years. While some cattle producers sold of a good portion of their herd (in wicked drought areas), it was to get the herd size down to levels that the land could support. All in all - cattle production in the USA is more or less steady.
...
Also - historically:
In the 1970s, there was higher per person beef consumption (92 lbs/year vs. 53 lbs/year today) (from Missouri Cattlemen's Association)
IMHO - The reduction in cattle from the 1950's is also mostly due to less consumption per person - which I think is caused, at least in part, by the high price of beef in the grocery store.

Great post!
Misleading is what I call my from days in statistics class in college. Facts can be twisted from positive to negative depending on who pays for the results.

More vegans maybe, the different farmers know how to raise prices more than 1 way, biggest 1 is Grass fed lmao, grain feed mine please

Farmers are the growers of beef and get jacked by whatever the meat packers choose to pay for live beef. The wholesaler is next and manipulates the pricing by different runs on meat they offer to the retailers.
Friends raise beef and they always get the short straw

 

[ajbert]

My wife and I rarely eat beef. Our main meat protein come from elk and deer, though we finished off the last of the elk and I probably won't draw for a tag until next year. We do have a number of cattle ranches in the area, so getting local beef is not a problem. One ranch even has yaks. Never ate yak before but may just try it one of these days.

We do get a couple of rib eyes now and then, plus pork and chicken. A person just can't be happy in life without steaks, pork chops, and fried chicken.