I actually need to do a post on this. I had a huge issue last year with a ~50% success rate if I was lucky. This year I'm 3/3 and Im doing another butt tomorrow. So far zero issues. Its too soon to tell, but if I go 5/5 then I will report back with my findings and I would say that the change is statistically significant.
I have no real explanation for the change. The only things Im doing differently:
1) My smoker is in a horizontal shed vs on my porch
2) I poked a hole in my lower tray which was covered with foil, allowing proper airflow (I refoiled at some point and forgot)
3) I microwave my pellets for 3min (same as last year), but this time I put them in at the same time I start the smoker. I dont leave them burning outside while I wait for the smoker to reach the right temp. I light them, blow on the cherry, make sure it looks good (you really need a good cherry and blow down), and then I put them immediately in the smoker (which takes ~45min-1 hour to reach stable temps). That way if they go out or are not burning properly, I will know it before I go to bed.
4) For smoke #3, I switched pellets. I used Todds old pellets for smokes 1 & 2, but because the pellets had been sitting for a year in my utility closet, they were nice and dried out. I think last year I was using moister pellets, their feel was different.
So I cant pinpoint the change, or say just yet if the change is statistically relevant vs year, but Im feeling very positive vs my results last year (geeeez I hope I dont jinx it, /hit delete button HAHA).
If I had to chose one, I would say it was the pellets. They definitely felt different last year. I'm using the Pitboss pellets now and they are larger/look drier.
Either way, its so nice to get a good smoke using the tools you bought for their intended purpose. Its gives me such satisfaction. Its so easy to use the MES 40 + AMPS combo if you can get it to consistently work. Its genius.