Not looking good for us in Florida

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Fueling Around

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Dec 10, 2018
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MN summer, FL winter
Is there any “good” place for a hurricane to track and make landfall?

Been a couple years since I was in the panhandle and they were still recovering from Michael

Stay safe all in the danger zone
 

fltsfshr

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First hurricane i went through was Key West in 1968. Went to Sloppy Joes in a Jon boat. :)
Worst damage I've ever seen in Florida was Andrew. Miami, Homestead & Florida City looked like they had been nuked. Volunteered in Jamaica after Gordon. That was tough.
I still help with spreadsheets co-ordinating volunteer aid and people logistics.
 
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JckDanls 07

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I'm South of Tampa about 30 miles (Palmetto) .. I'm Also less than a mile away from the mouth of Tampa Bay (right at the South end of the Skyway Bridge ... So I'm more worried about storm surge .. I see now they are saying a little south of Sarasota (Venice) Maybe...
I work at Port Manatee and the Coast Guard came and shut down all vessel operations today and all sips have to leave port and ride it out at sea...
Gonna wait until tomorrow to decide if I'm going to board up or not...

edit to say... now they say just north of Tampa... puts me on the east side close to center... not good for storm surge...
 
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motocrash

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Hope everyone stays safe, may good judgement be with you.

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pineywoods

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Well Al the latest looks like somewhere between you and me. I'm just west of Tallahassee. Even if it misses me it may hit near my sister and brother in law in Crystal River and if they do get hit hard you can guess where I'll be. I'll wait till Wed morning before really doing much other than fueling vehicles. We just filled some gas cans a day or two ago and filled my 100 gal diesel fuel tank yesterday. We don't leave I have a 4wd tractor with loader and a skid steer I can cut/push my way out but if we left I might not be able to get back in without the equipment. When Michael hit we saw no county or state or any other help for two weeks a neighbor and I cleared our roads and our neighbors so we could check on all of them.
 
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pineywoods

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Is there any “good” place for a hurricane to track and make landfall?

Been a couple years since I was in the panhandle and they were still recovering from Michael

Stay safe all in the danger zone
There are still a good number of people in the panhandle of FL and people in S. GA trying to recover from Michael
 
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negolien

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My cousin lives in Titusville so at least he's on the other side for this one. It's kinda the price you pay for living in G-Ds country like living in tornado zone. Just have to accept the risks and prepare for the worst.
 

chilerelleno

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I'm South of Tampa about 30 miles (Palmetto) .. I'm Also less than a mile away from the mouth of Tampa Bay (right at the South end of the Skyway Bridge ... So I'm more worried about storm surge .. I see now they are saying a little south of Sarasota (Venice) Maybe...
I work at Port Manatee and the Coast Guard came and shut down all vessel operations today and all sips have to leave port and ride it out at sea...
Gonna wait until tomorrow to decide if I'm going to board up or not...

edit to say... now they say just north of Tampa... puts me on the east side close to center... not good for storm surge...
Storm surge estimate right now is 5'-10' for your area.
 

Wurstmeister

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I’m still waiting until tomorrow morning to start moving stuff, these things have a mind of their own.
Al
Be careful my friend. Don't putz with the storm. My wifes cousin and family just moved to Tampa from Arizonia to be close to the shore. I don't think they expected to be THIS close (and he is originally from NODAK!!) Looks like we'll even see some of Ian's flooding here in the CSRA (Augusta, GA area).

PROST!🍻
 

DougE

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We don't leave I have a 4wd tractor with loader and a skid steer I can cut/push my way out but if we left I might not be able to get back in without the equipment.
Damn farmers always trying to do stuff theirself rather than waiting to get bailed out .....
 
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noboundaries

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Stay safe and make smart choices everyone. Things can be replaced.

I had to ride out a direct hit from Hurricane Allen decades ago. One hurricane in my life was one too many. It was a Cat 5 that stalled offshore and came ashore as a 3.

BOQ roof landed on my car (Toyota Celica). I saw it happen. Later, cleared the debris and drove windowless thru 2 feet of water in spots to get home when my duties were complete. When I got home the roof shingles were gone from the duplex I was renting. Inside of the place was soaked. Ceiling caved in my bedroom and den.

And then came more rain.

Ahhh, memories. Not good ones.
 
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pit 4 brains

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The latest model shows it stalling for around 12 hours before ejecting to the North as a TD. If that's the case, there is gonna be a lot of localized rainfall along with wind surge and nautical tides. Inundation might be a huge issue to say the least.
Hoping for the best to y'all..
 

mcokevin

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I’m still waiting until tomorrow morning to start moving stuff, these things have a mind of their own.
Al
Al, still some crazy models showing you aren't completely out of the woods, but I think you are looking pretty OK in Sebring. As of the 11pm NHC update you are looking like a ~90% chance to receive Tropical Storm conditions 34kt winds and a ~50% chance of 50kt winds.

The "earliest reasonable" arrival of TS winds for you is around midnight Tuesday into Wednesday, with the "most likely" arrival around noon-2pm Wednesday.

Keep an eye as you are still in the cone!

I'm South of Tampa about 30 miles (Palmetto) .. I'm Also less than a mile away from the mouth of Tampa Bay (right at the South end of the Skyway Bridge ... So I'm more worried about storm surge .. I see now they are saying a little south of Sarasota (Venice) Maybe...
I work at Port Manatee and the Coast Guard came and shut down all vessel operations today and all sips have to leave port and ride it out at sea...
Gonna wait until tomorrow to decide if I'm going to board up or not...

edit to say... now they say just north of Tampa... puts me on the east side close to center... not good for storm surge...
Please be careful with this one - it is the real deal, and you are not in a great spot right now :(

Looks like it is going to stall on approach so potentially hours of serious surge conditions for somewhere on the coast, and potentially greater than a 10ft surge in the area
 

pineywoods

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I'm South of Tampa about 30 miles (Palmetto) .. I'm Also less than a mile away from the mouth of Tampa Bay (right at the South end of the Skyway Bridge ... So I'm more worried about storm surge .. I see now they are saying a little south of Sarasota (Venice) Maybe...
I work at Port Manatee and the Coast Guard came and shut down all vessel operations today and all sips have to leave port and ride it out at sea...
Gonna wait until tomorrow to decide if I'm going to board up or not...

edit to say... now they say just north of Tampa... puts me on the east side close to center... not good for storm surge...
Keith if y'all wanna get out of there I know a place looks like we will miss the bad stuff unless they decide to change it several more times. Even so your parking spot would be safe here with the building protecting it I happen to know the builder and that building ain't moving